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CHAPTER Ⅰ EARLY POPULATION THEORIES 1

1．INTRODUCTORY 1

2．GREEK AND ROMAN POPULATION THEORIES 2

3．THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLY CHRISTIANS 5

4．SIXTEENTH AND SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY WRITERS ON POPULATIOON PROBLEMS 7

5．THE INTRODUCTION OF VITAL STATISTICS 11

6．THE FORERUNNERS OF MALTHUS 13

CHAPTER Ⅱ MALTHUS 20

1．AN ESSAY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION 20

2．THE MALTHUSIAN ARGUMENT 22

3．THE LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS 28

4．THE RELEVANCE OF THE MALTHUSIAN ARGUMENT TO PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES 32

5．AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT 36

CHAPTER Ⅲ POPULATION THEORIES IN CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES 40

1．WHY MALTHUS HAD MANY DISCIPLES 40

2．HOW DIMINISHING RETURNS REVEALED THEMSELVES 43

3．REACTION AGAINST MALTHUS AND RICARDO 45

4．J．S．MILL＇S VIEW OF POPULATION PROBLEMS 48

5．A CRITICISM OF MILL＇S VIEW 51

6．THE RETURN TO MALTHUS 54

CHAPTER Ⅳ FOOD AND RAW MATERIALS 59

1．ANALOGY BETWEEN A SHRINKING EARTH AND A GROWING POPULATION 59

2．THE TRANSFERENCE OF RESOURCES IN WAR-TIME 61

3．THE PRESSURE OF POPULATION UPON SUBSISTENCE 64

4．THE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGES OF A GROWING POPULATIOON 66

5．THE SUPPLY OF RAW COTTON 70

6．THE SUPPLY OF WOOL 72

7．FISHERIES 74

CHAPTER Ⅴ COAL AND IRON 77

1．JEVONS AND THE COAL QUESTION 77

2．THE MEANING OF＂EXHAUSTION＂ 82

3．THE INFLUENCE OF PROTECTION 85

4．THE WORLD＇S COAL RESERVES 87

5．THE EXPORT TRADE IN COAL 90

6．SUBSTITUTES FOR COAL 91

7．IRON 94

8．GREAT BRITAIN＇S PROBLEM 95

CHAPTER Ⅵ THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 99

1．CHANGES IN THE BIRTH-RATE 99

2．CHANGES IN THE DEATH-RATE 102

3．THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF BIRTH-RATE AND DEATH-RATE UPON THE GROWTH OF POPULATION 103

4．PREVENTIVE CHECKS TO POPULATION 106

5．UNDER-POPULATION 107

6．A FALLING BIRTH-RATE 108

7．SOME EXPLANATIONS OF THE DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE 111

8．VARIATIONS IN THE BIRTH-RATE BETWEEN DIFFERENT CLASSES 113

9．OTHER FACTORS INFLUENCING THE BIRTH-RATE 115

10．THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE 117

CHAPTER Ⅶ INTERNATIONAL POPULATION PROBLEMS 119

1．THE INFLUENCE OF NATIONALITY 119

2．JAPAN AND INDIA 120

3．THE BIG FOUR 123

4．THE UNITED STATES 123

5．THE BRITISH EMPIRE 124

6．FRANCE 125

7．GERMANY 127

8．RUSSIA 129

9．WAR AND POPULATION 130

10．WAR AND SUBSISTENCE 134

11．EMIGRATION 140

12．THE DANGER TO CIVILIZATION 146

CHAPTER Ⅷ THE QUALITY OF POPULATION 148

1．INTRODUCTORY 148

2．WHY THERE ARE MORE WOMEN THAN MEN 148

3．THE FERTILITY OF DIFFERENT CLASSES 150

4．A CAUSE OF THE HIGH BIRTH-RATE AMONG THE POOR 153

5．EUGENIC CONSIDERATIONS 154

6．PRESENT LIMITATIONS OF EUGENICS 158

7．THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF HEREDITY AND ENVIRONMENT 159

8．THE RELATION BETWEEN QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF POPULATION 160

CHAPTER Ⅸ SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 165

1．RECAPITULATORY 165

2．A FORECAST BY MALTHUS 167

3．THE WORLD＇S RESOURCES 168

4．THE WAY OUT 169

5．POSSIBLE SCIENTIFIC DEVELOPMENTS 170

6．THE VALUE OF DISCUSSION 173