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1 Psychology Is Alive and Well(and Doing Fine Among the Sciences) 1

The Freud Problem 1

The Diversity of Modern Psychology 3

Implications of Diversity 4

Unity in Science 6

What,Then,Is Science? 8

Systematic Empiricism 9

Publicly Verifiable Knowledge:Replication and Peer Review 10

Empirically Solvable Problems:Scientists'Search for Testable Theories 12

Psychology and Folk Wisdom:The Problem with"Common Sense" 13

Psychology as a Young Science 17

Summary 18

2 Falsifiability:How to Foil Little Green Men in the Head 21

Theories and the Falsifiability Criterion 22

The Theory of Knocking Rhythms 23

Freud and Falsifiability 24

The Little Green Men 26

Not All Confirmations Are Equal 28

Falsifiability and Folk Wisdom 29

The Freedom to Admit a Mistake 29

Thoughts Are Cheap 32

Errors in Science:Getting Closer to the Truth 33

Summary 36

3 Operationism and Essentialism:"But,Doctor,What Does It Really Mean?" 37

Why Scientists Are Not Essentialists 37

Essentialists Like to Argue About the Meaning of Words 38

Operationists Link Concepts to Observable Events 39

Reliability and Validity 40

Direct and Indirect Operational Definitions 42

Scientific Concepts Evolve 43

Operational Definitions in Psychology 45

Operationism as a Humanizing Force 47

Essentialist Questions and the Misunderstanding of Psychology 49

Summary 51

4 Testimonials and Case Study Evidence:Placebo Effects and the Amazing Randi 53

The Place of the Case Study 54

Why Testimonials Are Worthless:Placebo Effects 56

The"Vividness"Problem 59

The Overwhelming Impact of the Single Case 62

The Amazing Randi:Fighting Fire with Fire 64

Testimonials Open the Door to Pseudoscience 65

Summary 71

5 Correlation and Causation:Birth Control by the Toaster Method 73

The Third-Variable Problem:Goldberger and Pellagra 74

Why Goldberger's Evidence Was Better 75

The Directionality Problem 78

Selection Bias 79

Summary 83

6 Getting Things Under Control:The Case of Clever Hans 85

Snow and Cholera 86

Comparison,Control,and Manipulation 87

Random Assignment in Conjunction with Manipulation Defines the True Experiment 88

The Importance of Control Groups 90

The Case of Clever Hans,the Wonder Horse 95

Clever Hans in the 1990s 97

Prying Variables Apart:Special Conditions 100

Intuitive Physics 102

Intuitive Psychology 103

Summary 106

7 "But It's Not Real Life!":The"Artificiality"Criticism and Psychology 107

Why Natural Isn't Always Necessary 107

The"Random Sample"Confusion 108

The Random Assignment Versus Random Sample Distinction 109

Theory-Driven Research Versus Direct Applications 110

Applications of Psychological Theory 115

The"College Sophomore"Problem 117

The Real-Life and College Sophomore Problems in Perspective 120

Summary 121

8 Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome:The Importance of Converging Evidence 123

The Connectivity Principle 124

A Consumer's Rule:Beware of Violations of Connectivity 125

The"Great-Leap"Model Versus the Gradual-Synthesis Model 126

Converging Evidence:Progress Despite Flaws 128

Converging Evidence in Psychology 130

Scientific Consensus 134

Methods and the Convergence Principle 136

The Progression to More Powerful Methods 137

A Counsel Against Despair 139

Summary 142

9 The Misguided Search for the"Magic Bullet":The Issue of Multiple Causation 143

The Concept of Interaction 144

The Temptation of the Single-Cause Explanation 147

Summary 150

10 The Achilles'Heel of Human Cognition:Probabilistic Reasoning 151

"Person-Who"Statistics 153

Probabilistic Reasoning and the Misunderstanding of Psychology 154

Psychological Research on Probabilistic Reasoning 156

Insufficient Use of Probabilistic Information 157

Failure to Use Sample-Size Information 159

The Gambler's Fallacy 161

A Further Word About Statistics and Probability 163

Summary 165

11 The Role of Chance in Psychology 167

The Tendency to Try to Explain Chance Events 167

Explaining Chance:Illusory Correlation and the Illusion of Control 170

Chance and Psychology 172

Coincidence 172

Personal Coincidences 175

Accepting Error in Order to Reduce Error:Clinical Versus Actuarial Prediction 176

Summary 183

12 The Rodney Dangerfield of the Sciences 185

Psychology's Image Problem 185

Psychology and Parapsychology 186

The Self-Help Literature 188

Recipe Knowledge 190

Psychology and Other Disciplines 192

Our Own Worst Enemies 193

Isn't Everyone a Psychologist?Implicit Theories of Behavior 199

The Source of Resistance to Scientific Psychology 200

The Final Word 205

References 207

Credits 229

Name Index 230

Subject Index 237